Google and the Ad Tech Butterfly Effect

In her latest column, ad tech expert Shirley Marschall looks at the power of Google, and why the industry still dances to the tunes coming out of Mountain View...

How exhausting it must be to be the “most loved” and “most hated” company at the same time… one headline lands after the next – some about Google, others from Google. 

Those headlines are followed by hot takes. The ad tech industry cheers and curses in equal measure – depending on the topic. Schadenfreude over the monopoly verdict is quickly eclipsed by Google’s own schadenfreude at the outrage over its cookie flip-flop.

Google…

Google the search engine.

Google the ad tech monopolist.

Google the lobbyist with a VIP pass to the policy table.

Google the verb.

And now, Google the company that once again flipped like a steak, this time on its years-long promise to deprecate the third-party cookie.

The reactions came in fast:

• “After all that prep work!”
• “Millions wasted on alternatives!”
• “This is why we can’t have nice things!”

The cookie is the headline. The butterfly effect is the story.

One Google move, and the entire ecosystem pivots. Again.

The Butterfly Effect, Brought to You by Chrome

For the past five years, cookie deprecation fuelled the biggest wave of ad tech innovation since mobile (and before AI). Universal IDs. Privacy sandboxes. Cohorts. Clean rooms. Contextual 2.0. Every roadmap, every conference panel, every VC pitch deck – orbiting the same premise:

A future where cookies were dead.

And then, with a single blog post, Google flipped the script.

It wasn’t the first time. It won’t be the last.

Because when you own the browser (TBD if or when that changes), the auction, the measurement, and the pipes - the industry moves when you twitch.

Resistance Theatre: We Complain. Then We Comply

We’ve seen this play before.

YouTube gets hit with brand safety backlash? Advertisers boycott - for 48 hours.

Google makes YouTube DV360 exclusive? The industry moans - and adapts.

A new policy gets rolled out? Everyone grumbles - and clicks “accept.”

There are always alternatives. But almost no one takes them.

Why? Because it’s easier to complain than to act.

Because convenience always wins.

Because the gravity of Google is real.

Brands could afford to stop spending on YouTube (no one’s going bankrupt over pre-rolls). Or ditch Google Ads (whose quality is questionable to begin with). Or skip GA4 entirely…

We’re not dependent on Google but we’re entangled.

Embedded Influence: The Power Behind the Curtain

Google doesn’t just build the tech. It builds trust - at the highest levels.

We all know about agency rebates, programme incentives, and those “premium” deals baked into terms and conditions. Google doesn’t even hide them.

But the real influence? It starts way higher.

Google has spent years - decades - cultivating executive-level access to the world’s biggest brands. Whispered invitations to Mountain View. Direct lines to C-suites. Political presence that rivals nation states.

This isn’t about the marketing department anymore.

It’s about strategy. Procurement. Boardrooms.

Add in event sponsorships, working group seats, funding for industry bodies, and you realise Google’s not just part of the system. It’s underwriting the system.

Same Playbook. New Playground

If this feels familiar, just look at AI and Google’s latest pivot: From ‘catch up’ to ‘catch us’.

Gemini went from punchline to contender in record time. And if you squint, the playbook looks familiar. The highlights:

• Integrated full stack: from chips to models to BigQuery and Vertex AI, Google owns every layer.
• End-to-end Optimisation: No partners needed. Every part talks to every other part, faster, smarter.
• Perfect market fit: Enterprise demand meets Google’s supply, right on time.

At some point, the ecosystem stops reacting and starts adapting - not out of strategy, but resignation. When every resistance effort folds and every workaround bends back to the original platform, a kind of learned helplessness sets in. 

Why fight it when the outcome always loops back to the same gatekeeper?

Translation: Google doesn’t wait to be crowned. It builds the throne.

The Takeaway: It Was Never Just About Cookies

The cookie U-turn is just a symptom.

The real story is Google’s gravitational pull, its ability to shape not just the tools, but the rules.

Its power to trigger a global pivot with a single sentence. Its reach across tech, media, policy, and enterprise. Its dominance not just through market share, but mindshare.

We don’t need another cookie death date. We need to talk about what happens when one company sets the tempo for an entire ecosystem and no one walks away.

Because if Google flipped like a steak… maybe it’s time we looked at the kitchen.

And asked who built it? Who stocked it? And who’s still pretending the chef works for them?

And yet, here we are… still planning dinner around someone else’s recipe.